中国古代的臣民曾以为他们的皇帝能够通过祈祷让老天下雨,而当今的中国官员则更相信科学,对其号称是全球最大人工降雨项目的投入也迅速加大。然而,到底能产生怎样的效果却较难量化。
(1)Just as grateful subjects praised the heavens for any rain that fell, the state-controlled media in China often report on the heroic contributions made by "weather-modification offices" whenever needed rain comes. These offices, set up over the past 15 years, deploy artillery, rocket-launchers and aeroplanes to seed clouds with chemicals (usually silver iodide) that encourage droplets to form and fall where needed, or prevent the formation of destructive hailstones.
正如心存感激的古代臣民为每一滴雨露歌颂上苍一样,中国国有传媒每当雨"有求必降"之时都会报道"人工影响天气办公室"所作的伟大贡献。在过去的十五年中,这类办公室相继成立,它们调动大炮、火箭发射器和飞机,利用化学品(通常是碘化银)来"播云",作用要么是促进雨滴形成后降到需要雨水的地方,要么是防止破坏性冰雹形成。
China\'s efforts have been encouraged by an increasingly desperate shortage of water in the north. China also frets about the Olympic games in Beijing in August 2008, in a season when rainstorms are common. Making it rain away from big events is a key area of research. (2)Last week officials awarded merit certificates to organisations involved in "weather guarantee" work for a summit with African leaders held in Beijing in November. Those honoured included the air force, Beijing\'s military command and the Second Artillery, which controls missiles. All were urged to do a good job at an Olympic rehearsal next year.
中国之所以这么做,是因为北方缺水问题日益严重。中国还为2008年8月北京奥运会感到担忧,届时北京将正处于暴风雨季。让降雨避开大型活动是研究的一个关键领域。上周,官员向为11月北京非洲领导人峰会提供"天气保障"服务的有关单位颁发了奖状,受奖单位包括空军、北京军区和二炮(控制导弹的部队)。官员还敦促所有单位在明年奥运会预演时能有出色表现。
Artificial rainmaking is practised in many countries but its success is hard to prove. In recent years, China has been helped by big improvements in its weather-monitoring capacity. Its latest satellite, Fengyun-2D, was launched on December 8th with Olympic forecasting as a priority mission. It plans to launch another 22 weather satellites by 2020.
许多国家都开展了人工降雨,但难以证实其成功作用。近年来,中国在天气监控能力上有了很大提高,从中也受益颇多。12月8日发射的风云-2D是中国最新发射的一颗卫星,其首要任务是为奥运会提供天气预报服务。中国计划在2020年以前再发射22颗气象卫星。
Mao Jietai of Peking University says circumstantial evidence suggests cloud seeding can increase precipitation by around 10%, but admits doubts about its real efficacy. (3)Undaunted, the government has set an annual target for artificially induced rain nationwide for the next five years: around 50 billion cubic metres, or five times parched Beijing\'s average. As in imperial times, few will be able to refute claims of success.
北京大学的毛节泰(音)称,有间接证据表明,"播云"可能提高大约10%的降雨量,但他也不否认对其实际功效表示怀疑。政府并没有因此泄气,它已经为今后五年全国范围内的人工降雨制定了一个年度目标,即每年人工降雨大约500亿立方米或者达到北京低降雨量的5倍。就像帝王时代一样,上面说会成功就一定会成功,谁敢说不?