A predictable crisis
可预见性危机（陈继龙 编译）
Oct 12th 2006
From The Economist print edition
JOHN REID became home secretary because of a prisons_________①.His predecessor, Charles Clarke, was forced to resign in May after admitting that some 1,000 foreign prisoners who ought to have been considered for deportation had been freed. （1）This week Mr Reid faced a prison crisis of his own, made worse by new figures showing that offenders released early from jail on electronic tags have committed more than 1,000 serious crimes.
约翰•里德是因为一桩监狱丑闻而成为英国内政大臣的。今年5月，他的前任查尔斯•克拉克在承认释放了大约1000名本应考虑驱逐出境的外籍犯人之后被迫辞职。本周，里德自己也面临着监狱危局，而且当有最新数据表明提前获释、并装有电子追踪标记的罪犯又犯下了一千多宗严重罪行后，情况变得更为糟糕。[/replyview]
理论上讲，英格兰和威尔士的监狱能够容纳8万余人。截至10月6日两所监狱仅差210人就会达到饱和。有关方面已经采取了补救措施，如在单身牢房中关押2人、对更多的犯人实行监外察看以及将罪犯转移到远离其家人的监狱。本周又出台了一系列最后的补救措施。大约500间警察局的狱室将用于监禁犯人。为了腾出外籍罪犯占用的床位，他们中间反对被驱逐出境的请求将不再会被驳回，而其它罪犯则会在拿到一笔钱后返乡。
This is one of history's less surprising crises. （3）By the late 1990s Home Office statisticians were not only predicting a rapid rise in prisoner numbers, but also erring[2] on the side of pessimism.Eight years ago, when the prison population was just above 65,000, the department predicted that it would rise to 83,000 by 2005. In 2002 the statisticians' forecasts were also too pessimistic. Yet the politicians still appear to have been caught by surprise.
历史表明，这场危机并不值得大惊小怪。20世纪90年代末，英国内政部统计人员就曾预测犯人数量将快速增长，而且不惜做出了最坏的打算。8年前监狱人口总数刚刚超过6.5万，统计部门预测到2005年这一数字将升至8.3万。2002年，统计人员的预测结果同样十分悲观，但政治家们却好像又吓了一跳。
One reason the prisons are full is that there are more police officers—141,000, compared with 122,000 in 2000. （4）They can now go after crimes that are hard to crack but attract long sentences, such as drug-trafficking.The number of people in prison for drug offences has trebled since 1994. And, while the overall crime rate in England and Wales is improving, it may be that some criminals are worse. Cindy Barnett, a London magistrate, reckons thed_______③she sees are more violent and have graver drug problems these days. That helps to explain why magistrates sent 27% of robbers straight to prison in 2004—up from just 10% in 1993.
监狱人满为患的原因之一是警察增多了——2000年是12.2万，而现在是14.1万。他们可以（有充足的人手）忙于一些难以侦破、但有望判处重刑的案子，如毒品交易。1994年以来，在押毒犯数量已经增长了3倍。而且，当英格兰和威尔士的总体犯罪情况好转之时，某些罪犯的犯罪情节却越来越恶劣。伦敦地方法官辛迪•巴内特认为，如今她所见过的那些被告更为暴戾，涉毒问题也更为严重。因此，2004年地方法官为何将27％的抢劫犯都直接送进大牢（1993年仅为10％）就不难解释了。In the past few years, the Home Office hasprodded[3]judges and magistrates to punish serious, violent offenders more heavily, while encouraging them to go easier on petty thieves. The former has certainly happened: the number of life sentences has more than doubled since the early 1990s. The latter has not. Populist politicians forgot that judges tend to havef_______④ideas about the relative seriousness of offences. （5）Force them to increase sentences for murder, and they will also hand out longer terms to armed robbers.
过去几年来，内政部敦促审判人员要严惩有暴力行为的重犯，同时鼓励他们对那些小偷小摸的人从宽发落。前面一条当然能做到：20世纪90年代初以来，获判终生监禁的人数翻了一番还要多。可后面一条则不然。鼓吹平民主义的政治家们忽略了一点，那就是法官对情节相对较严重的犯罪行为往往都有不容改变的看法。你可以强迫他们加重对杀人犯的判罚，而他们同样也会对携带凶器的抢劫犯判处较长的刑期。
Finally, there is media pressure.T_______⑤newspapers such as the Sun and the Daily Mailhound[4]judges who pass, or even seek to justify, lenient sentences. This week the Sun accused one wig of “living in an ivory tower”. Because most people's experience of the criminal-justice system is rare and intermittent, such coverage strongly influences the public mood. （6）Ivory towers notwithstanding, it also stings judges.Penny Darbyshire, an academic who has been following wigs for several years, says theypore over[5]press coverage. “And many of them have wives who read the Daily Mail,” she says.
最后还有媒体的压力。要是哪个法官作出了仁慈的判决（即便他企图证明这样的判决合情合理），诸如《太阳报》和《每日邮报》之类的小报就会对他纠缠不休。本周《太阳报》指责说，一个戴假发的人（暗指法官）“住进了象牙塔”。由于大多数人对罪犯－司法体系很少有切身体会，因此这样的报道严重左右着公众的情绪。虽然“象牙塔”（有点含糊其辞），但仍旧让法官们感觉如芒在背。跟踪研究法官多年的学者彭妮•达比夏尔说，他们极为关注媒体的报道，“而且他们很多人的妻子都爱看《每日邮报》。”（注：本段强调的是由于面临媒体的压力，一些本打算对罪犯宽大处理的法官不得不将更多的人判决收监，从而造成监狱人满为患。媒体指责法官生活在象牙塔里，暗讽他们在判决时脱离实情，不严格执法。而最后提到的“妻子爱读《每日邮报》”是指“她们能将读到的小道消息转达给她们的法官丈夫”，提醒他们判决时要考虑舆论的呼声。）
[QUIZ]
1. 根据上下文和英文释义，补全单词：
①s_______（n.an event in which someone, especially someone important, behaves in a bad way that shocks people）
②a_______（v.to have enough space for a particular number of people or things）
③d________（n.the person in a court of law who has been accused of doing something illegal）
④f________（adj.very definite）
⑤t________（n.a newspaper that has small pages, a lot of photographs, and stories mainly about sex, famous people etc rather than serious news）
2. 英译汉（将划线部分英文翻译成中文）：
[NOTES](LONGMAN)
1. last-ditch adj.无退路的，已至最后防线的
2. err v.犯错误，做错事，失误于……（on the side of）
3. prod v.催促，推动
4. hound v.纠缠，追逐
5. pore over注视，凝视
[KEY TO QUIZ]
[replyview]1. ①scandal 丑闻
②accommodate 容纳
③defendants 被告
④fixed 固定的，确定的，不容改变的
⑤Tabloid 小报
2.（见译文，仅供参考，欢迎指正）
